Pakistan's Domestic Crisis After Operation Sindoor: Political and Military Fallout in July 2025

The India-Pakistan conflict, a perennial fault line in South Asian geopolitics, reached a critical juncture in May 2025 with India’s Operation Sindoor, a series of precision strikes targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Triggered by the April 22 Pahalgam attack that killed 26 tourists, the operation has plunged Pakistan into a domestic crisis, marked by political fragmentation, military recalibration, and societal unrest. In July 2025, the fallout from these events continues to reshape Pakistan’s internal dynamics, with the military’s authority bolstered yet challenged by public discontent over civilian casualties and economic strain. This article explores the historical and strategic context of Pakistan’s domestic challenges, details the political and military developments in July 2025, and analyzes the broader regional and global implications, offering insights into the evolving landscape of South Asian security.

Pakistan’s domestic instability is deeply rooted in its history of military dominance, political volatility, and reliance on proxy warfare. Since its inception in 1947, Pakistan has oscillated between civilian and military rule, with the military exerting significant influence over foreign and security policy. The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has long been accused of supporting militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) to wage proxy wars in Kashmir, a strategy that gained prominence during the 1980s insurgency. The 1971 war, which led to Bangladesh’s independence, exposed Pakistan’s military vulnerabilities, yet its nuclear arsenal, developed by the 1990s, provided strategic leverage, enabling low-intensity conflicts without risking full-scale war. The 2019 Balakot airstrike by India, in response to the Pulwama attack, marked a shift in India’s approach, signaling intolerance for Pakistan’s alleged proxy support. This event, coupled with Pakistan’s placement on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in 2018, strained its global standing, forcing the military to adapt its tactics, including the use of groups like The Resistance Front (TRF) to obscure direct involvement.

Strategically, Pakistan’s reliance on proxy militancy has been a double-edged sword, fueling internal unrest while serving foreign policy goals. The Balochistan insurgency, led by groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), has intensified since the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects began, targeting Chinese interests and exposing governance failures. Political divisions, exemplified by the 2022 ousting of Imran Khan and the subsequent rise of Shehbaz Sharif’s coalition government, have deepened public distrust in civilian institutions. The military, under General Asim Munir, has consolidated power, leveraging anti-India sentiment to deflect criticism of domestic failures, such as economic crises and energy shortages. The Pahalgam attack, attributed to TRF, provided a pretext for India’s Operation Sindoor, which targeted nine terrorist sites, including LeT and JeM bases in Punjab and Azad Kashmir. Pakistan’s denial of involvement and its retaliatory drone and missile strikes have escalated tensions, placing immense pressure on its domestic framework.

In July 2025, Pakistan grapples with a multifaceted crisis precipitated by Operation Sindoor. The operation, launched on May 7, 2025, involved Indian missile and drone strikes on terrorist infrastructure, killing over 100 terrorists, including high-value targets linked to the 1999 IC 814 hijacking and the 2019 Pulwama attack. Pakistan reported 31 civilian deaths, including women and children, in cities like Muzaffarabad and Bahawalpur, with strikes allegedly targeting mosques and residential areas. The Pakistani military, under General Munir, retaliated with drone and missile attacks on Indian bases in Jammu, Pathankot, and Udhampur, claiming to have downed Indian aircraft, though India denies significant losses. The Indian Air Force’s use of BrahMos missiles and loitering munitions crippled Pakistani airbases, with satellite imagery confirming damage to JF-17 hangars and radar systems at Rahim Yar Khan and Sargodha. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) reported 11 military fatalities, including five air force personnel, and 78 injuries, framing the conflict as “Marka-e-Haq” to rally domestic support.

Politically, Operation Sindoor has unified Pakistan’s fractured political landscape, albeit temporarily. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s condemnation of the strikes as a “heinous act of aggression” and the National Security Committee’s emergency meeting reflect a rare alignment between civilian and military leadership. Posts on X highlight General Munir’s emergence as a “strong man,” with the military’s reputation bolstered by its retaliatory strikes. However, public protests in Punjab and Azad Kashmir over civilian casualties have exposed underlying tensions. The deaths of 40 civilians, including 15 children, in cross-border shelling have fueled anti-government sentiment, with citizens in Kotli and Muzaffarabad accusing the military of failing to protect them. The closure of major airports and schools, alongside a state of emergency in Punjab, has disrupted daily life, exacerbating economic woes. Inflation, already at 12% in early 2025, has worsened due to disrupted trade and CPEC projects, with public frustration directed at both India and Pakistan’s leadership.

The military’s response has been robust but controversial. The ISPR’s claim of downing Indian Rafale jets, disputed by India, aims to project strength, but the loss of air force personnel and infrastructure has raised questions about Pakistan’s air defense capabilities. The use of Chinese and Turkish drones, including the Bayraktar Akinci, in retaliatory strikes signals Pakistan’s reliance on foreign technology, with downed drones revealing Chinese components, raising espionage concerns. The military’s decision to provide state funerals for LeT operatives has drawn Indian accusations of complicity, further straining diplomatic ties. Internally, the military faces pressure from Balochistan, where over 350 attacks in 2025 have killed 398 security personnel. The BLA’s targeting of CPEC infrastructure, coupled with Operation Sindoor’s fallout, has stretched Pakistan’s forces thin, with resources diverted from counterinsurgency to LoC defenses.

Pakistan’s diplomatic maneuvers reflect a delicate balancing act. The suspension of the Simla Agreement in response to India’s abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty has escalated the crisis, with both nations expelling diplomats. Pakistan’s proposal for a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, accepted on May 10, 2025, temporarily halted hostilities, but violations in Poonch and Kupwara have persisted. The military’s narrative, amplified through state media, frames India’s strikes as unprovoked, rallying domestic support but risking international isolation. The FATF’s scrutiny, intensified by TRF’s U.S. designation as a terrorist group in July 2025, threatens Pakistan’s economic stability, with potential blacklisting looming. Public sentiment on X reveals mixed reactions, with some praising the military’s resilience and others criticizing its failure to prevent civilian losses, highlighting a growing divide between state propaganda and public frustration.

The implications of Pakistan’s domestic crisis are profound, with ripple effects across South Asia and beyond. Internally, the military’s strengthened grip risks further eroding democratic institutions. The unification of political forces under anti-India sentiment, as noted by analysts, may bolster General Munir’s authority but masks underlying fractures. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has capitalized on public discontent, organizing protests in Islamabad against economic hardship and civilian deaths, challenging Sharif’s coalition. The economic toll, with disrupted CPEC projects and trade, threatens Pakistan’s $350 billion GDP, already strained by a $7 billion IMF bailout in 2024. Socially, the crisis has fueled radicalization, with TRF exploiting grievances over civilian casualties to recruit youth in Azad Kashmir. The drug trade, facilitated by smuggled Afghan heroin, continues to fund militancy, exacerbating Pakistan’s internal security challenges.

Regionally, the crisis deepens India-Pakistan tensions, with Operation Sindoor redefining deterrence dynamics. India’s strikes, targeting Punjab for the first time since 1971, signal a willingness to cross traditional thresholds, challenging Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence. The ceasefire, mediated through U.S. channels, is fragile, with drone incursions and shelling threatening escalation. Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese military support, evident in downed drones, strains its relations with Western allies, particularly the U.S., which has called for counterterrorism cooperation. The Balochistan unrest, intensified by Operation Sindoor’s fallout, risks destabilizing CPEC, prompting China to urge restraint to protect its $62 billion investment. Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, benefiting from the heroin trade, gains leverage, complicating Pakistan’s western border security. Iran, wary of spillover, has increased patrols along its Balochistan border, fearing similar insurgencies.

Globally, the crisis underscores the challenges of managing nuclear-armed rivalries. The U.S., while facilitating the ceasefire, remains cautious, with Vice President JD Vance emphasizing limited influence. The U.K.’s parliamentary debate on de-escalation reflects global concern, but Pakistan’s alignment with China complicates Western mediation. The use of advanced drones and missiles highlights the proliferation of dual-use technologies, with implications for global arms control. India’s strategic success, as seen in satellite imagery of damaged Pakistani airbases, enhances its regional standing but risks isolating Pakistan, potentially pushing it toward riskier proxy tactics. The international community, including Qatar and Japan, has called for dialogue, but Pakistan’s internal instability limits its diplomatic leverage. The crisis also amplifies the FATF’s role, with Pakistan’s failure to curb TRF and LeT risking economic sanctions.

Addressing Pakistan’s crisis requires a delicate balance. Militarily, enhancing air defense systems and counter-drone technology is critical to deter future incursions, but resource constraints limit progress. Politically, Sharif’s government must navigate public unrest and PTI’s opposition, potentially through economic relief measures to mitigate inflation. Diplomatically, Pakistan must reassure the FATF of its counterterrorism efforts to avoid blacklisting, while engaging China and the U.S. to stabilize CPEC and secure aid. Socio-economically, addressing grievances in Balochistan and Azad Kashmir through development programs could reduce militant recruitment. However, the military’s authoritarian grip risks stifling these efforts, perpetuating a cycle of instability. The ceasefire offers a chance for dialogue, but sustained violations and proxy militancy threaten its viability, demanding a recalibration of Pakistan’s strategic priorities.

In conclusion, Pakistan’s domestic crisis in July 2025, triggered by Operation Sindoor, reflects a convergence of political, military, and societal challenges. The military’s bolstered authority, driven by anti-India sentiment, masks internal fractures, with civilian casualties and economic strain fueling public discontent. While the ceasefire provides temporary respite, the crisis underscores Pakistan’s vulnerability to proxy warfare and external pressures, with implications for South Asian stability and global security. A comprehensive approach, balancing military modernization, political reform, and diplomatic engagement, is essential to navigate this turbulent period and prevent further escalation.

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