Syria's Seismic Moment: A Shift in West Asia's Balance of Power
The Syrian civil war, a conflict that shaped the region for over a decade, seems to have reached a conclusion—or so it appears. However, the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad marks not just an end but potentially a new and volatile beginning.
The 11-Day Offensive: A Turning Point in Syrian History
On November 27, a coalition of Syrian rebel groups, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a blitzkrieg offensive that led to the fall of Damascus within just 11 days. Cities like Hama, Homs, and Aleppo were swiftly captured, culminating in the exile of Assad to Moscow. In Damascus, jubilant Syrians celebrated the end of a 51-year Assad family rule, replacing the regime's flag with the three-starred banner of the rebels. Over 10 million refugees began contemplating a return to their homeland, hoping for a new era.
Yet, this seismic shift brings a series of unanswered questions: Can HTS maintain stability? And what will this power realignment mean for the region?
Who Are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham?
HTS, formerly an affiliate of Al Qaeda, emerged as a key player in the Syrian civil war. Once considered an extremist organization, HTS now projects a moderate face. Despite being labelled a terrorist group by the UN and the USA, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has positioned HTS as Syria's saviour. But can a group with such a tumultuous history sustain its new image?
The Hidden Hands Behind the Revolution
The rapid success of HTS hints at external influences. Syria's fragmented military, reliant on Russia and Iran, offered little resistance. Russia, entangled in its prolonged conflict in Ukraine, abstained from intervening. Iran, weakened by the erosion of its proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, also stayed out.
Speculation suggests Turkey played a decisive role. Hosting over 3 million Syrian refugees, Turkey likely saw Assad's downfall as an opportunity to facilitate their return and counter Kurdish aspirations for independence. Meanwhile, Israel capitalized on the chaos to strike Syrian military assets, further weakening the regime.
Regional Implications: Winners and Losers
Iran: The fall of Assad cuts off Iran’s land route to its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, diminishing its influence in the region.
Israel: With control over the Golan Heights and the strategic Mount Hermon, Israel strengthens its security buffer.
Turkey: Establishing a "safe zone" in northern Syria helps Turkey curb Kurdish separatist movements.
USA: While officially non-committal, the USA sees an opportunity to limit Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence in the region.
Challenges Ahead for Syria
Despite the euphoria, Syria faces monumental challenges. The HTS-led alliance is a patchwork of factions with conflicting agendas. Sectarian divisions between Sunnis, Shias, Christians, and Alawites remain a powder keg. Infighting among rebel groups has already surfaced, and there’s a looming threat of a resurgence by groups like Al Qaeda or ISIS.
Will the provisional government under Mohammed al-Bashir deliver on its promises of inclusivity? Or will Syria descend into another cycle of violence?
The overthrow of Assad signifies a pivotal moment for West Asia, reshaping alliances and creating new power dynamics. While it offers hope for millions of displaced Syrians, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainties. The world watches closely as Syria navigates this critical juncture.
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