Aleppo Back in Rebel Hands
The Syrian Civil War, one of the most protracted and devastating conflicts of the 21st century, has reached a pivotal moment. For the first time since 2016, rebel forces have regained control of Aleppo, a city symbolizing the intense battle between opposition forces and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. This development has sent shock-waves across the region, marking both a strategic and symbolic loss for the Syrian government. The retaking of Aleppo not only challenges Assad's grip on power but also highlights the evolving dynamics of Syria’s deeply fragmented conflict.
The Fall of Aleppo: Key Developments
The offensive to recapture Aleppo was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a coalition of Islamist opposition groups with a stronghold in Idlib Province. Utilizing surprise tactics, the rebels quickly overwhelmed government forces in key districts, including the historic citadel and strategic transportation hubs. Within days, they expanded their control to include Aleppo International Airport, further crippling the regime's ability to resupply its forces. Rebel advances have also extended southward into Hama Province, with reports indicating the capture of parts of the provincial capital.
Aleppo's fall represents a major blow to the Assad regime, which had celebrated its 2016 victory in the city as a turning point in the war. This loss not only diminishes the regime’s territorial control but also deals a severe psychological blow to its narrative of inevitable victory.
The rapid loss of Aleppo has exposed significant vulnerabilities in Assad's forces. Years of corruption, over-reliance on external support, and declining morale among troops have contributed to the regime’s inability to mount an effective defense. The withdrawal of Russian military advisors and resources, as Moscow prioritizes its war in Ukraine, has further weakened the regime’s position. Similarly, Iranian-backed militias such as Hezbollah, once a critical pillar of Assad’s defense strategy, are facing logistical and financial challenges that limit their operational capacity.
Rebels and civilians alike have celebrated the victory in Aleppo, with images of the Free Syria flag flying over the citadel circulating widely. Political prisoners freed during the rebel advance have begun sharing harrowing accounts of torture and deprivation under Assad’s rule. However, the city remains tense, with reports of sporadic clashes between rebel factions and concerns about potential reprisals against civilians perceived as loyal to the regime.
Implications for the Assad Regime
Aleppo’s loss has sparked significant internal discord within the Assad regime. Reports of gunfire in Damascus and alleged infighting among military factions indicate a regime struggling to maintain cohesion. The departure of prominent regime figures, including pro-Assad businessman Fares Shehabi, underscores the growing sense of uncertainty within the government’s ranks.
The fall of Aleppo presents logistical and strategic challenges for the regime. Without access to Aleppo International Airport, resupplying troops and coordinating military operations in northern Syria becomes increasingly difficult. Additionally, the loss of Aleppo disrupts the regime's ability to project strength, further emboldening opposition forces and potentially encouraging defections from Assad’s military.
Regional Dynamics and International Reactions
Turkey's Calculated Involvement
Turkey, a key player in northern Syria, has reportedly facilitated HTS’s advance by loosening restrictions on cross-border supply routes. While Ankara officially denies direct involvement, its strategic interests align with weakening the Assad regime, particularly as it seeks to counter the influence of Kurdish-led groups in the region. Turkish-backed factions have reportedly moved to consolidate their positions in areas vacated by Assad’s forces, raising the potential for future clashes with HTS and other opposition groups.
Kurdish Advances
Meanwhile, Kurdish-led forces under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have taken advantage of the chaos to seize parts of eastern Aleppo, including the airport. This move sets the stage for potential conflicts with Turkish-backed rebels, as Ankara views the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which it considers a terrorist organization.
International Silence
The international response to Aleppo's fall has been muted. Major powers, including the United States and the European Union, have focused on other global crises, offering little more than calls for restraint and humanitarian access. This lack of engagement highlights the waning international attention to Syria, despite the conflict’s ongoing humanitarian and geopolitical ramifications.
The Humanitarian Toll
The fall of Aleppo has triggered a new wave of displacement, with thousands of civilians fleeing the city amid fears of violence and reprisal. Humanitarian organizations have warned of dire conditions in rebel-held areas, where shortages of food, water, and medical supplies are exacerbating an already dire situation. The prospect of prolonged fighting in Hama and Idlib threatens to worsen Syria’s humanitarian crisis, which has already displaced over 13 million people since 2011.
Both sides in the conflict have faced allegations of war crimes, including indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas and the use of banned weapons. The United Nations has called for an independent investigation into reports of atrocities committed during the battle for Aleppo, though such efforts face significant obstacles in the absence of a political resolution to the conflict.
A Pivotal Moment for Syria
The recapture of Aleppo by rebel forces represents a significant turning point in Syria’s civil war. It signals the Assad regime’s declining ability to maintain control over key territories, raising questions about its long-term viability. At the same time, the fractured nature of the opposition and the involvement of competing regional powers complicate the prospects for a unified front against Assad.
As the conflict enters a new phase, the future of Syria remains uncertain. The fall of Aleppo underscores the need for renewed international engagement to address the root causes of the conflict and support efforts toward a sustainable resolution. However, without a concerted effort to bridge the deep divisions within Syria and among its international stakeholders, the war is likely to drag on, with devastating consequences for its people and the region as a whole.
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