China’s Silent Military Maneuvers Around Taiwan Raise Concerns

Beijing has recently rolled out a new tactic in its ongoing pressure campaign on Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory. For four days this week, Taiwan was placed on high alert as China’s military gathered an unprecedented naval force in the waters surrounding Taiwan. The exercise, which has been described as China’s largest naval buildup around the island in three decades, took place without the usual grand propaganda displays that typically accompany such actions. This time, China kept the details of the operation largely under wraps, only offering a cryptic statement from the country’s defence ministry.

Beijing’s silence surrounding the military movements marks a departure from its past practice. In previous instances, China would accompany military drills with heavy media coverage and inflammatory rhetoric, often targeting Taiwan’s leadership. For instance, in October 2024, the "Joint Sword-2024B" exercises were paired with scathing media campaigns aimed at Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, labelling him a "separatist" for his refusal to recognize Beijing’s claims over Taiwan. However, this week’s naval operations have been notably quieter, leading analysts to speculate that this could be a new phase in China’s military strategy towards Taiwan.

China’s defence ministry quoted the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu in a statement on Friday, which seemed to further confuse analysts. “Just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions,” the ministry said, without confirming or denying that it was conducting military exercises. This ambiguity has left many questioning China’s intentions and its next steps in the region.

Experts have suggested that this could be an effort by Beijing to normalize its military presence around Taiwan. Taiwan’s defence officials have warned that the lack of clear announcements could be a strategy to lull Taiwan into a false sense of security. "By not announcing the drills in advance, they want to lower our alertness and catch everyone off guard when they keep appearing around Taiwan," said Hsieh Jih-sheng, a senior intelligence officer with Taiwan’s defence ministry.

Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and security officials believe that these actions represent a shift in Beijing’s tactics. "I clearly believe this is the beginning of the ‘mid-stage’ of normalization," said Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker for the DPP. He added that neighbouring countries must also pay attention, as they could be the next targets of China’s aggressive military posturing if they do not respond adequately.

The United States and Japan, Taiwan’s key security partners, have expressed concern about the movements, but neither has confirmed the scale of China’s naval deployments. Taiwan’s emergency response center indicated late Thursday that the situation appeared to be de-escalating, as Chinese forces began to withdraw from the area.

The fear in Taiwan is that these military manoeuvres could be a precursor to a more aggressive action. Analysts have pointed out that China has steadily increased its military activities in the region over the past few years. Taiwan’s defence ministry noted that this most recent deployment extended across what is known as the First Island Chain, which includes Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines. Beijing’s growing control over this area could potentially block U.S. intervention in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.

China’s actions are seen as a direct challenge to the U.S., which has long maintained a policy of supporting Taiwan’s defence through arms sales and military cooperation. Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research, noted that China’s increased military presence is designed to demonstrate its ability to dominate the region. “It’s a tricky operation, showing on the one hand their dissatisfaction with Taiwan, and on the other showing the U.S. and its allies that it has military muscle,” Su said.

The lack of an official announcement regarding these military drills has sparked concerns about the normalization of such manoeuvres. The more Beijing can conduct these drills in silence, the more it may embolden its forces and gradually shift the status quo in its favour. A regional security diplomat remarked that China’s lack of transparency is a way of signalling that it is more focused on delaying or preventing any foreign intervention in the region than on controlling the area directly around Taiwan.

This covert approach to military exercises is seen as a long-term strategy by China to establish its dominance over the region. While Taiwan remains on high alert, the uncertainty surrounding China’s intentions continues to grow. Some analysts believe that China will keep pushing the boundaries of what is acceptable in the region until it feels fully confident that it can carry out a successful military operation if necessary. For now, Taiwan’s government and its allies can only watch and prepare for what comes next.