China Sets Military "Red Line" Around Taiwan Amid Heightened Tensions

TAIPEI — China has ramped up its military activities around Taiwan, signalling a clear message to the incoming U.S. administration and its allies: the region, particularly the First Island Chain, is firmly within China's sphere of influence. Senior Taiwanese security officials have expressed concerns over China's growing military presence, with expectations that further war games could take place this weekend, coinciding with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's return from his Pacific tour.

China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, has conducted multiple rounds of military drills in 2024, with its forces regularly operating near the island. The heightened activities come at a time when President Lai is travelling through the Pacific, including stops in Hawaii and the U.S. territory of Guam. According to sources in Taipei, China is seeking to establish a "red line" for the incoming Biden administration, urging the U.S. to recognize its dominance over the First Island Chain, which stretches from Japan, through Taiwan, the Philippines, and on to Borneo.

“They want to clearly establish that the First Island Chain is China’s red line and its sphere of control before the new U.S. government takes office,” a Taiwanese official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters on December 5. The official added that China may conduct new military drills in the days following Lai's return on December 6, signalling its intent to reinforce its territorial claims before the U.S. enters a new administration in January.

China’s recent military manoeuvres in the region have been highly visible. This week, China deployed nearly 40 vessels, including an aircraft carrier group, the Liaoning, in the East China Sea. Other naval and coast guard units have been stationed in the South China Sea, underscoring China's military readiness in the region. Furthermore, a joint military operation with Russia was reported on December 2, with a Russian naval fleet conducting simulated attacks on foreign vessels and aircraft alongside a Chinese destroyer near Taiwan’s southeastern coast.

The heightened Chinese military activity coincides with growing tensions over Taiwan’s international engagements. Beijing has long opposed foreign interactions with Taiwanese leaders, viewing such actions as violations of its "One China" policy. As President Lai continues his diplomatic outreach, particularly in the Pacific, Beijing has urged the U.S. to exercise caution in its relations with Taiwan, warning that any further foreign visits or interactions could escalate tensions.

China's increasing assertiveness in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters reflects its broader ambitions in the region, where it seeks to assert control over contested maritime areas. With close ties to Russia, Beijing appears eager to signal its strength not just to Taiwan, but to other regional powers, including the United States and Europe. By expanding its military footprint, China aims to reinforce its position as the dominant power in the East Asia-Pacific region.

As tensions mount, the international community watches closely, with the potential for further confrontations or military engagements looming. For now, China’s message is clear: the First Island Chain is off-limits to foreign influence, and it intends to defend its claims through military might if necessary.

The situation remains fluid, and all eyes will be on the outcomes of any new Chinese military drills and the reactions of the U.S. and its allies in the coming weeks.