Arakan Army’s Triumph in Rakhine Sparks New Challenges for Myanmar

 The fall of BGP5, the Myanmar military junta’s last stronghold in northern Rakhine State, marks a pivotal moment in the country’s ongoing civil war. The Border Guard Police compound, a heavily fortified base near the Bangladesh border, was overtaken by the Arakan Army (AA) after months of fierce fighting.

For General Min Aung Hlaing, leader of the military junta, this defeat is a severe blow. The loss not only underscores the army's diminishing control but also solidifies the AA as one of Myanmar’s most effective insurgent forces. With the entire 270-kilometer Bangladesh border under AA control, Rakhine State is edging closer to becoming the first region entirely outside the junta’s grasp.

The Brutal Siege of BGP5

The AA's advance was relentless but costly. The insurgents navigated minefields, spiked ditches, and fortified bunkers to seize the 20-hectare compound built on the ruins of the Rohingya village Myo Thu Gyi. Video footage released by the AA shows fighters, many barefoot, battling amidst airstrikes and artillery fire.

Inside the captured base, the AA documented piles of bodies, claiming over 450 junta soldiers perished in the siege. Among those captured was Brigadier-General Thurein Tun, shown kneeling with his officers under the insurgents’ flag.

Despite their victory, the AA reportedly suffered heavy losses, with numerous fighters killed or maimed during the assault.

Rising Questions About the Future of Rakhine

The AA's growing dominance in Rakhine State raises critical questions about governance, humanitarian concerns, and the region's Rohingya population.

Rakhine has long been one of Myanmar's poorest and most neglected regions. Years of military conflict have left much of the infrastructure in ruins. According to local sources, 80% of housing in Maungdaw and surrounding villages has been destroyed. The town itself is now largely deserted, with reports of widespread looting and displacement.

The United Nations has warned of a looming famine in Rakhine due to military blockades and the inability to deliver humanitarian aid. The AA, despite establishing its administration in controlled areas, has struggled to provide food and shelter for the displaced population.

Rohingya Dilemmas Under AA Rule

The fate of the estimated 600,000 Rohingya remaining in Rakhine adds further complexity to the AA’s ascent. Historically persecuted by successive Myanmar governments and ostracized by many ethnic Rakhine, the Rohingya have endured decades of systemic violence.

While some Rohingyas view the AA's rule as preferable to the military junta, others have been forcibly expelled from towns captured by the AA. In August, reports emerged of dozens of Rohingya civilians killed by bombs allegedly dropped from AA drones.

The AA has pledged to include all communities in its vision for an autonomous Rakhine State but has also denounced Rohingya groups that sided with the military. Tensions remain high, and the future of the Rohingya under AA governance remains uncertain.

A Crossroads for Myanmar

The AA's victory at BGP5 highlights the weakening grip of Myanmar’s military junta. Yet, it also underscores the fragmentation of the opposition forces. While the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) seeks to unify ethnic groups under a federal system, the insurgents’ territorial gains may tempt them to negotiate separate deals, particularly under China's influence.

For Rakhine, the path ahead is fraught with challenges. Balancing autonomy with inclusivity and addressing the region’s humanitarian crisis will be key to ensuring stability in this war-torn state. Whether the AA can transition from a powerful insurgent force to an effective governing body remains an open question.

The fall of BGP5 is not just a military victory—it is a defining moment in Myanmar’s struggle for control, justice, and self-determination.