Iran's Supreme Leader Orders Direct Strike on Israel After Hamas Leader's Assassination

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ordered a direct strike on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The New York Times reported, citing three Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guards, that Khamenei gave the order during an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning, shortly after Iran announced Haniyeh's death.

Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Both Iran and Hamas have accused Israel of orchestrating the assassination, although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement. This incident has intensified tensions in a region already fraught with conflict. According to the NYT, the assassination was a significant security breach for Iran, particularly given Haniyeh's prominence and the presence of other allies in the capital.

Khamenei’s directive signals a significant escalation in the conflict. In his public statement, he described avenging Haniyeh’s blood as a duty and warned Israel of a severe punishment. Iran’s military commanders are reportedly considering a combination of drone and missile attacks on military targets near Tel Aviv and Haifa, explicitly aiming to avoid civilian casualties. Another option under consideration is a coordinated attack involving Iran’s allied forces in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

The international community has urged de-escalation. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the strikes in Tehran and Beirut as a dangerous escalation and emphasized the need for a ceasefire in Gaza. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed this sentiment, stressing that a ceasefire remains imperative.

Despite the high-stakes rhetoric, it remains uncertain how forcefully Iran will respond. Iran has previously engaged in calibrated measures to avoid all-out war while applying pressure on Israel. For instance, in April, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus, which killed several Iranian military commanders.

Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and members of the Revolutionary Guards, have openly stated that Iran will retaliate against Israel. They assert Iran’s right to defend its sovereignty and deter further attacks. Analysts believe that Iran sees retaliation as necessary not only to avenge Haniyeh's death but also to prevent future Israeli strikes against key figures like Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah or General Ismail Qaani of the Quds Forces.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for significant regional escalation if Iran proceeds with its plans for direct military action against Israel. The international community continues to watch closely, hoping for measures that will prevent a broader conflict.