China’s Naval Expansion and Its Implications for ASEAN Nations

In recent years, China’s military ambitions in the South China Sea have become a central concern for Southeast Asia. The rapid expansion of China’s naval capabilities, coupled with its increasing assertiveness in the disputed waters, has dramatically shifted the regional security landscape. For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which includes maritime states such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, China’s growing naval power poses not just a strategic threat but also a direct challenge to their sovereignty and security interests.

The South China Sea, an area rich in resources and a vital trade route has been a longstanding flashpoint in international geopolitics. The region is vital for global trade, with nearly one-third of the world’s shipping traffic passing through its waters. China’s expansive territorial claims, underpinned by the controversial Nine-Dash Line, have led to increasing tensions with ASEAN nations, who also have competing claims in the area. As China strengthens its military presence, particularly through the development of artificial islands and the deployment of advanced naval assets, ASEAN is forced to navigate a difficult path between economic cooperation and safeguarding its maritime sovereignty.

China's Naval Expansion: A Growing Threat

In the past decade, China has taken significant steps to modernise and expand its naval forces. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has rapidly evolved into one of the largest and most sophisticated naval forces globally, with investments in aircraft carriers, submarines, advanced destroyers, and amphibious assault ships. This military build-up is not only seen as a means to assert China’s territorial claims over the South China Sea but also as part of its broader strategy to project power in the Indo-Pacific region.

One of the most notable aspects of China’s naval expansion is its artificial island-building efforts. Over the last decade, China has constructed a network of military bases on reefs and islands in the South China Sea, including the Spratlys, which are claimed by several ASEAN members. These islands, outfitted with airstrips, radar systems, and military installations, have transformed the region into a de facto Chinese military stronghold. As China strengthens its foothold, it is able to project military force across the entire South China Sea, increasing its ability to control critical shipping lanes and natural resources.

The presence of Chinese naval vessels in the region has escalated military tensions with other claimants. In recent years, ASEAN nations have reported numerous incidents involving Chinese naval ships, including confrontations between fishing vessels, military ships, and coast guards. The growing number of Chinese military exercises and patrols in these waters has exacerbated concerns among ASEAN members, who view these actions as violations of their sovereign rights and the 2016 international arbitration ruling that invalidated China’s expansive claims.

ASEAN’s Strategic Dilemma

For ASEAN, China’s naval expansion poses a significant strategic dilemma. The 10-member bloc, which includes countries with diverse political and economic systems, has long sought to maintain a balance between economic cooperation with China and its desire to safeguard regional stability and sovereignty. ASEAN’s "centrality" in regional security dialogues has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy, but the rise of China’s military power is testing the limits of this diplomatic approach.

While ASEAN nations are united in their opposition to China’s excessive territorial claims, their responses to Beijing’s military activities have been varied. Some countries, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, have taken a more confrontational stance, seeking greater security cooperation with the United States and other regional powers. The Philippines, under the leadership of President Rodrigo Duterte, has often been caught between seeking economic ties with China and pushing back against Beijing’s encroachments on its maritime territory. Despite Duterte’s pivot towards China, the Philippines has also engaged in legal battles, such as the 2016 arbitral ruling, which has provided some legal grounding for its claims.

Vietnam, with its long history of resistance to Chinese dominance, has been similarly vocal in condemning China’s militarisation of the South China Sea. Hanoi has also deepened its security ties with the United States, Japan, and India, seeking to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region. Other ASEAN members, such as Malaysia and Brunei, have expressed concern over China’s actions but have been less outspoken, often opting for more diplomatic and trade-based solutions to maintain their economic relations with Beijing.

One of the challenges ASEAN faces is its inability to present a unified front against China. The bloc has made some efforts to draft a Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea, but progress has been slow, and China’s influence over certain ASEAN members has complicated negotiations. Beijing has managed to cultivate close economic ties with several Southeast Asian countries, using trade and investment as leverage to diminish their willingness to challenge China’s actions in the South China Sea.

Moreover, the growing military power of China is eroding ASEAN’s influence in the region. The lack of military capabilities within ASEAN, coupled with divisions among its members, has made it difficult for the bloc to effectively counter China’s assertiveness. While ASEAN has called for the peaceful resolution of disputes and respect for international law, its ability to enforce these principles is limited. The US, Japan, and Australia have provided some support through Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) and joint military exercises, but ASEAN’s own military response remains fragmented.

The International Response: A Complex Geopolitical Game

China’s naval expansion in the South China Sea has attracted the attention of global powers, particularly the United States, which views Beijing’s actions as a direct challenge to the international rules-based order. Washington has been vocal in opposing China’s excessive claims and has conducted regular Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the region to challenge China’s control over disputed waters. These operations, while symbolic, are meant to assert the principle of free and open access to the sea.

Other regional powers, such as Japan and Australia, have also raised concerns about China’s growing military presence in the South China Sea. Japan, which has territorial disputes with China in the East China Sea, has expressed support for ASEAN’s efforts to uphold international law in the region. Australia has been increasingly involved in joint military exercises with the US and ASEAN nations, seeking to ensure regional stability and security.

However, China’s growing naval power has complicated these efforts. The increasing militarisation of the South China Sea not only challenges ASEAN’s sovereignty but also raises the prospect of greater military confrontation between China and external powers. The US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific, with the South China Sea as a central battleground, has placed ASEAN countries in a precarious position. While the bloc has sought to avoid being caught in the middle of the superpower struggle, the geopolitical realities of the region make it increasingly difficult for ASEAN to remain neutral.

Navigating the Storm

As China’s naval expansion continues, ASEAN nations face an increasingly uncertain and challenging future. The bloc must navigate a delicate balance between economic cooperation with China and its commitment to safeguarding sovereignty and regional security. The rise of China’s military power in the South China Sea has reshaped the security dynamics of Southeast Asia, and ASEAN’s inability to present a unified front in dealing with Beijing has complicated efforts to resolve the dispute.

The South China Sea remains one of the world’s most strategically important and contested regions, and the actions of China and other global powers will continue to shape its future. For ASEAN, the challenge is clear: how to manage relations with China while ensuring the protection of its territorial integrity and securing its maritime future in the face of growing geopolitical tensions.