Myanmar Crisis, A Regional Test for Southeast Asia in 2024

As we approach the end of 2024, Myanmar’s ongoing crisis remains one of Southeast Asia's most critical challenges. The country’s descent into violence after the February 2021 military coup continues to shape both domestic realities and regional geopolitics. Despite years of intense opposition from civil society groups, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), and the pro-democracy movement, Myanmar’s military junta maintains a firm grip on the country. The humanitarian crisis, displacement, and economic collapse have compounded the issue, presenting a formidable challenge for the region, particularly for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), struggling to maintain cohesion and effectiveness in its response.

ASEAN’s Strained Response to Myanmar

ASEAN has long prided itself on being a bloc that prioritizes consensus-based diplomacy, but Myanmar’s crisis has tested the organization’s capacity to act decisively. The junta’s violent suppression of dissent has led to an intensification of conflict and a significant refugee crisis. According to recent estimates, over 2.6 million people have been displaced by the violence, with many seeking refuge in neighbouring countries like Thailand and Bangladesh​ (The Diplomat)

However, ASEAN’s collective response has been largely ineffective. Initially, ASEAN called for a return to democracy and the cessation of violence. Yet, as Myanmar’s military leaders continue to consolidate power, ASEAN’s approach has become increasingly fragmented. The bloc’s decision to exclude Myanmar’s junta from high-level meetings has been symbolic at best. ASEAN's attempt to engage with the National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s opposition group, has lacked tangible results. ASEAN’s principle of non-interference, combined with differing national interests, has hampered a coordinated regional approach to the crisis​ (United States Institute of Peace)

Notably, ASEAN's inability to exert pressure on Myanmar has been exacerbated by China’s growing influence in the region. Beijing’s support for the junta has strengthened the regime’s position on the global stage, especially within multilateral platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Myanmar's increasing reliance on China has significantly reduced ASEAN’s leverage over the military regime. ASEAN members such as Cambodia and Laos have maintained more favourable relations with Beijing, further complicating the bloc's ability to present a unified stance on Myanmar. (United States Institute of Peace)

Regional Implications and Humanitarian Crisis

The refugee situation has exacerbated regional instability. Thailand, already grappling with its own political challenges, has faced significant pressure as it accommodates hundreds of thousands of refugees. The crisis has also extended to Bangladesh, which has struggled to manage the influx of refugees from Myanmar’s Rakhine State. ASEAN’s efforts to address the humanitarian needs of these displaced populations have been sluggish, with limited progress in creating effective channels for aid delivery and protection. (The Diplomat)

Economically, Myanmar’s collapse has further strained regional trade and security dynamics. The country’s GDP has contracted sharply, and many of its key industries, including agriculture, mining, and energy, are at a standstill. Meanwhile, the junta’s refusal to engage in meaningful dialogue has left Myanmar’s economy in a state of stagnation, which inevitably affects the region. ASEAN, as a major trade bloc, faces challenges in mitigating the ripple effects of Myanmar’s economic downturn, which has affected neighbouring countries, particularly Thailand and China​ (United States Institute of Peace)

The Role of External Powers: China and India

China’s role in Myanmar has taken on an increasingly strategic dimension. Beyond providing economic support, Beijing has utilized Myanmar as a critical part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), further solidifying its influence in the region. In contrast, India has been cautious, balancing its concern over China’s growing footprint with a desire not to antagonize Myanmar’s military. Despite shared security interests, particularly regarding insurgent movements near their shared border, India has refrained from overtly supporting Myanmar’s opposition due to its broader strategic calculations​. (United States Institute of Peace)

India’s approach reflects the broader regional dilemma: how to navigate the growing influence of China while addressing the crisis in Myanmar. For ASEAN, finding a way to counterbalance China’s rising influence in Myanmar without destabilizing the region remains one of the most complex challenges. The junta’s military cooperation with China and its reluctance to engage with ASEAN’s diplomatic overtures leaves little room for the regional bloc to influence the situation meaningfully.

Looking Ahead: Prospects for Peace in 2025

As Myanmar moves toward 2025, the prospects for peace remain grim. The junta’s refusal to negotiate with the National Unity Government and other opposition groups makes any form of political reconciliation difficult to achieve. Despite calls from within ASEAN and the international community for more robust interventions, Myanmar’s future seems increasingly tied to its military rulers and the influence of external powers like China.

For ASEAN, the crisis in Myanmar has exposed significant weaknesses in its ability to mediate conflict and enforce regional norms. The lack of a cohesive response to Myanmar’s military regime, coupled with the geopolitical complexities surrounding China’s involvement, suggests that regional peace may remain elusive in the near future. ASEAN’s future relevance in dealing with internal crises within its member states hinges on its ability to find new, more effective methods of intervention and diplomacy.

The Myanmar crisis will continue to define Southeast Asia’s political landscape in 2025. Whether ASEAN can recalibrate its approach to ensure a more meaningful resolution to the conflict—or whether external powers like China and India will assert greater influence in shaping Myanmar’s future—will be critical in determining the region's stability in the years to come.